Pragmatism And Caution Needed

Amid unchallenged globalisation, the rise of powers such as China and India has made the western nations insecure and apprehensive of their status and hegemony. The growing economic boom in many developing countries has made it pretty unfashionable to talk about the 21century being an Asian century. The future of developed nations, with Europe at the forefront, is painted bleak by the self-proclaimed analysts and media commentators. But without losing our sense of rationality and without being overly optimistic, we must question whether the develpoed nations need to be that pessimist.

I believe that these prophets of doom make two mistakes. They confuse the relative with the absolute and they project the present stasis into an indefinite future. Relative economic decline is far removed from penury; we must understand that the emerging nations have a long way to catch up with developed nations and moreover, Europe’s living standards. The Continent’s economies will remain among the world’s richest for many decades to come. Rich economies growing quite slowly still feel rich, the more so when their populations are stable or declining.

More importantly, nor does the rise of powers such as China and India condemn Europe to political irrelevance. History’s unipolar moment – unchallenged US hegemony – is passing almost as quickly as it arrived. Those who hankered during the 1980s and 1990s for a superpower status that would set Europe in opposition to the US were always going to be disappointed. We should be thankful for that. But there is no reason why Europe should not play a significant part in a multipolar landscape.

For now, affluence is the enemy of change and thus of influence. Globalisation has intensified and accelerated shifts in comparative advantage.The necessary adjustments needed are being made more painful by the fact that most of the present generation of political leaders do not admit their urgency.

Globalisation also demands Europe look at itself in a different way. A decade or so ago the fashion was to see the European Union as a fortress behind which the nations of Europe could set the terms of their relationship with the world beyond.

Globalisation has at once weakened nation states and demanded a different collective approach from the EU. Instead, in France especially but also elsewhere, the Union finds itself reviled as a transmission mechanism for the malign forces of globalisation. Weak governments have fanned the embers of economic nationalism.

There is no mystery about the remedies. Flexible welfare systems, adaptable labour markets, responsive education systems and incentives for innovation are scarcely controversial.

The medicine need not include the dismantling of a distinctly European social model. Quite the reverse. A fairer distribution of economic opportunities is essential to preserve the Continent’s social cohesion. Europeans should know well enough that exclusion fans extremism.You need not be a pessimist to see the potential for conflict between the generations – between those living out comfortable retirements after a lifetime of security and those threatened with job insecurity and higher taxes. But nor does one need to be a radical to see how a higher retirement age and flexible working patterns can address the challenge.

Relax my friends. Europe’s and other developed nations past and future do not stand in contradiction. A small thing, perhaps, but some of the best modern architecture now adorns some of the Continent’s most venerable galleries and museums. No, what Europe needs above all is a different frame of mind.Sure, we need to be hopeful of such a scenario arising.

Till then, we- in the developing and under-developed parts of the globe- need to be careful of blowing away another oppurtunity by continuing living in sand castles!